Excess mortality in Australia - how do we figure it out going forward?
Karen Cutter is a trusted Australian actuary and a reliable source for considered insight into the impact of the pandemic and all matters actuarial.
In this article the Australian Actuaries Institute say
“The Mortality Working Group is planning to make a significant change to the baseline (or expected number of deaths) used when measuring excess mortality for Australia.
The Working Group intends to move away from the philosophical question of “How has the pandemic affected mortality?” to instead answer the question “Is 2023 mortality the ‘new normal’?”
Purpose
The purpose of this article is to set out considerations for setting a baseline (or expected number of deaths) for use in excess mortality calculations for the year 2024 and beyond. Many of the finer details still need to be determined, but this article sets out the conceptual framework that the Mortality Working Group intends to adopt for measuring excess mortality in 2024.”
