Working Group: Modelling

Nov 22 2021

Updated modelling of NSW Roadmap, Nov 22 2021

Summary NSW has achieved rapid and high vaccination rates in 2021.We updated our model for NSW using data from the milestones of adults 16+ being 70% and 80% fully vaccinated, using actual case data and vaccination rates for 12+ beyond the targets from these dates, and public health orders stipulated in the roadmap. The next […]

Working Group: ICU and Health System, Modelling

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Sep 15 2021

Modelling of NSW Roadmap to Freedom ICU Capacity for the Delta epidemic 2021

Summary: We estimate about 1890 daily cases in NSW at the time the first freedoms are granted on October 18th when the 70% adult vaccination target is met. The virus outpaces the vaccine, spreading every few days while vaccine immunity takes two months to achieve. This is why vaccination, whilst our ultimate exit strategy, cannot […]

Working Group: ICU and Health System, Modelling

Tags: modelling

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