New South Wales plans to relax restrictions when vaccination targets of 70% and 80% of those aged 16 years and over are met.
The national plan was based on the assumption there would be just 30 cases when restrictions were lifted. However, NSW may have cases in the hundreds or thousands when restrictions are relaxed.
The current discussion has been around “the peak” occurring during current restrictions.
But modelling from my team at UNSW shows if current restrictions are relaxed while a large proportion of the community is unvaccinated, a larger, second peak may occur that may overwhelms our hospitals – unless countermeasures are taken to prevent that.