Summary: We estimate about 1890 daily cases in NSW at the time the first freedoms are granted on October 18th when the 70% adult vaccination target is met. The virus outpaces the vaccine, spreading every few days while vaccine immunity takes two months to achieve. This is why vaccination, whilst our ultimate exit strategy, cannot control the current NSW epidemic. We estimate rapid, timely contact tracing capacity is low at current high case numbers. We looked at six scenarios based on the NSW Roadmap, with either a single relaxing of restrictions at 70%, 80% or with further relaxing of restrictions at the 80% target. We estimated the number of daily cases in NSW at the time restrictions are relaxed by fitting our model to the case data. This may be 1890 around the projected date the 70% target is met, October 18th. In the better scenarios, no further freedoms are granted when 80% is reached, but more people become eligible for those freedoms. In these scenarios code black can be avoided but the stress on ICU and hospital capacity will be roughly double to triple what it is currently. If restrictions are relaxed further in November following the 80% target being met, NSW would face code black conditions for five weeks. In all scenarios, once restrictions are relaxed in October, a second, larger peak will occur around Christmas day. If restrictions are only relaxed in November when the 80% target is reached, the second peak occurs in January. If testing capacity remains high and contact tracing capacity can be massively scaled up, these scenarios could be mitigated. If restrictions are relaxed on October 18th, we recommend no further relaxation occur in November, to avoid code black conditions. All scenarios where restrictions are relaxed in October will result in the worst epidemic to date occurring around December 24-26th. If restrictions were relaxed only when the 80% target were reached in November, starting case numbers would be lower and this would also mitigate the epidemic and likely move the peak to January. The current discussions about “the peak” refer to an epidemic peak under current restrictions – NSW faces a second, larger peak under all scenarios where restrictions are relaxed. If restrictions are relaxed, movement restriction should not fall to low levels (below 40%). As an adjunct to relaxing increasing movement and mixing of people under the roadmap, we recommend enabling high testing capacity, maintaining masks at high level and massively scaling up rapid contact tracing capacity using digital methods to mitigate epidemic growth. Reduction in any of these will be detrimental. Stockpiling for the health system and protection of health workers are a high priority.