he current NSW reopening plan risks a Christmas COVID-19 spike that could overwhelm intensive care units for five weeks and drive the total number of Delta deaths beyond 1000, a group of experienced Australian scientists have warned.The recently formed OzSAGE group has released modelling suggesting relaxing of restrictions when there is still high community transmission and only 70 per cent of adults fully vaccinated will cause a second, larger peak of the Delta outbreak, likely between December 24 and 29.The group, which advocates “elimination” of the coronavirus — transforming it into a measles-like threat with small, local outbreaks that don’t spiral out of control — fears not enough of the population will be vaccinated at the current reopening target to avoid significant fallout. The group stresses that reopening plan targets of 70 and 80 per cent of those aged 16 and over correspond to just 56-64 per cent of the wider population.